U.S. Federal Reserve over the past six weeks to launch a series of new loans and liquidity support tools, dizzying, once again, to deal with the crisis in the United States in the world's economic leaders, but measures to boost the confidence of the market need for a spate of data to prove , And the key is that it takes time, or to ease the crisis is expected to gradually lose the good. At present, more and more concerned about the market in the United States Treasury and the Federal Reserve how to support the ever-increasing pay tool, as well as the market has been very short-term bonds are more vigilant against the tide, how to have been issued by a massive short-term bonds into Longer-term bonds, this is a super-technical issues. Rebuilding confidence in the present is the key to solve three major problems: First, we must allow the market to see that all of these in the next year the Ministry of Finance will issue new debt instruments will be someone to take over, at least, it was taken over along with the voice. The U.S. Government is under pressure to convince overseas central banks and other institutional investors to absorb most of the new U.S. debt in order to continue to support the market. China and Japan in particular, the current situation can not strengthen our confidence. At the same time, needs a substantial increase in anti-inflation U.S. Treasury bonds (TIPS) issued the proportion that the United States government adopted a laissez-faire inflation will not solve the current difficulties so that buyers peace of mind. In addition, the U.S. government may be in the stability of exchange rates on additional commitments given at least implied through to dispel doubts about the outside world and attract overseas central banks and institutional investors to participate in a high, it will be more difficult. Second, the market needs to see housing prices, corporate cash flow and the default rate stabilizing, the financial crisis in the containment control. Data may attract people to eyeball, except collateral default rate and stable, or rising losses will continue to erode the banking system was added on the basis of the capital, were to become a bottomless pit, the consequences would be unthinkable. The Fed's balance sheet size since September 2008 has almost doubled because of new or expanded a series of new tools for credit for commercial banking system to provide some financial support 750,000,000,000 U.S. dollars. Since the U.S. Treasury Department by the end of August has been lending 876,000,000,000 U.S. dollars. Under normal circumstances, the Ministry of Finance to keep its current account balance in the commercial banks to set up special bank accounts - tax and loan accounts (TTL) to minimize the pressure. Ministry of Finance to be surplus to support its expenditure, reduce the external debt. But in the current financial environment, the U.S. Treasury Department does not exist overnight lending difficult, but again the deficit is inevitable. Third, the United States have not thought about it, failure to save the program and how to solve the crisis? Pass? Ministry of Finance to maximize the use of short-term debt financing instruments, the money will be deposited into the Federal Reserve and commercial banks, in fact, help commercial banks to borrow their own can not borrow the money. Ministry of Finance account at the Federal Reserve more than ordinary capital reserves of the central bank is a way to support the calm and collected. In the commercial bank loans and taxes account for more than ordinary capital reserves, the banking system is a kind of silent support. However, such a large-scale borrowing trouble is that the U.S. Treasury Department is close to its statutory liability limit. The current legal limit is 11,315,000,000,000 U.S. dollars. The U.S. Department of the Treasury of the existing outstanding debt 10,457,000,000,000 U.S. dollars, leaving only the amount 858,000,000,000 U.S. dollars. 700,000,000,000 U.S. dollars of which will be used to issue relief plan assets (TARP), it seems only the Ministry of Finance District 158,000,000,000 U.S. dollars of the loan amount. Otherwise, to be adopted by the Congress to continue to raise the amount. The U.S. government in November's general election is likely to re-convene a special session of Congress, the approval of the Ministry of Finance to raise the statutory borrowing limit, as a larger part of financial reform measures to help home buyers and corporate borrowers to escape rising The wave of bankruptcy. Even so, market conditions do not improve, the next step how to do? Global to buy U.S. bonds to boost the dollar, the problem is with the high deficits continue to increase, the dollar devaluation, not to safeguard the interests of the creditor countries, the United States in order to market and the credibility of the borrowing, the sovereignty of the Fund for money to buy high-dollar, Deficit hurt the dollar in a vicious circle, it seems that the key to unlock the link is some people have to foot the bill for the crisis, in other words, need to pass the crisis, those who are unlucky? The yen rose as a result of the stock market decline, continue to play the role of the anti-risk, high interest rates bottomed out after the currency started to strengthen the trend and the U.S. by the end of the Fund to support the needs of the rebound will not last, the United States in the third quarter GDP is expected to drop below the proof of the U.S. economy The worst recession in sight. Global stock markets rose and the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED, the U.S. Federal Reserve) to cut interest rates Wednesday against the U.S. dollar in the near future will help ease the buying today is the focus of market speculation that the Bank of Japan will cut interest rates in a yard, so increasing the yen sell-off However, this sentiment will not last long because the yen's recent strength has always been and nothing to do with interest rates. U.S. dollar against the euro and other currencies rise in interest rates by fund manager at the end of demand-driven, short-term effect of this is, at present the whole, the dollar largely reflects the trend of the stock market, the dollar and the stock market by risk-averse and will to bear the risk of fluctuations in the lead. Bank of Japan will decide whether to cut interest rates is the Japanese yen in the face additional risks, the U.S. dollar against the yen from 91 yen below the continuation of the 13-year low of the rebound trend, if after the rate cut should be increased speculative buying of the yen Opportunities. The euro against the dollar, down from 1.3300 high, much higher than this week in the electronic trading platform (EBS) touched 1.2329 U.S. dollars, means that the medium-term rebound in the market structure, the end is approaching, the global fund managers are expected to be bought a large amount of U.S. dollars And in order to hedge the U.S. dollar could lead to demand for callbacks the euro, but should rebound to restore the course. Released by the U.S. in the third quarter gross domestic product (GDP) shrinking less than expected, supporting high-yielding currencies such as the popularity of risky assets and pushed up the yen against the dollar, the United States in the third quarter of GDP decline in 2007 is still the best proof of the economic situation The grim, the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates Wednesday by 50 basis points to 1.0 percent in order to further cut interest rates has opened the door to the Federal Reserve Wednesday also approved a number of emerging economies with the central bank currency swap agreement so that they can deal with the U.S. credit crisis, The wishes of the risk of a lasting recovery may not mean that demand for dollars is still intact, but the strength of the U.S. dollar this year came to an end, the fundamentals to consider, in October cut the world's great magnitude, there are likely to cut interest rates over the next few months, the global economy next year Will be a further deterioration, so popular these days to continue next year low-interest currencies, the euro against the dollar may drop to the level of 1.20 U.S. dollars, but this will not occur in the present. The euro is expected to rebound after the fall, waited at the 1.2700 and 1.2580 above the level of support, is expected to continue to challenge 1.3300, and to try to break the resistance 1.3500 and even 1.3800 challenges of the region, so today if the euro's sharp decline to support, it will be bought Opportunity to rebound in the euro's journey is not over yet, most gratifying that the euro would remain at the 1.2500-1.3300 range big shock is the most reasonable and should be below 1.2900 bargain buying opportunity; above 1.2900 should be closed High-sell opportunities.
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