American-style cost-shift: oil and dollar situation inverter

U.S. financial tsunami triggered by the worldwide financial crisis is still spreading and deepening, and has severely hurt the real economy and the majority of investors. The most severe since the 1929-1933 economic crisis and has been declared free of the capitalist myth of bankruptcy, as well as over-innovation, over-consumption and over-reliance on monetary and economic development model of bankruptcy. This may lead to changes in the pattern of world economic and financial policies of major adjustment. In the financial tsunami which seriously undermine the world leader in the global hegemony of the financial infrastructure, the United States in monetary policy, financial supervision and operation of the IMF and will be more dependent on Europe, Japan and China policy co-ordination between (such as interest rate cuts at the same time). Only China and Japan joined hands in Europe and the United States can continue to play the role of the boss. As a result, the international monetary system, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank the right to vote and to monitor the distribution of goals (IMF on the issue of developed countries and non-balance of payments imbalance caused by insufficient attention to the crisis) may have a positive change. End of the six-year dollar The U.S. dollar cycle because of their financial situation will be improved and extended to six years or so, the euro's exchange rate will eventually be broken up 0.9 U.S. dollars / euros of the price. Gathered greater momentum in the financial tsunami, the U.S. government come up with trillions of dollars of funding to rescue the market, many experts and scholars in order to have a recession in the U.S. economy, the fiscal deficit is huge on the ground, the U.S. forecast in July will be short-lived since the pace of appreciation, In turn usher in a new wave of depreciation. But the fact is: the more the oil price drop, the lower U.S. dollar exchange rate or the more Yue Meng, the euro from a peak of 1.62 surging to a record 1.26 U.S. dollars / euros, the Australian dollar, British pound also showed rising momentum, resulting in a Granted options on futures speculation of primary products of domestic enterprises involved in foreign exchange transactions, as well as CITIC Pacific, China Railway, and other Chinese enterprises have suffered huge losses. Dollar Why is there such a "fun" of the situation? This is also from the financial crisis and U.S. strategic intention to seek the answer. On the financial impact of the tsunami, at least three major factors against the U.S. dollar has played a supporting role: First, the global stock markets plunged, the funds in order to seek refuge after another into the U.S. bond market and indirectly raise the popularity of the dollar. Secondly, in order to save the financial markets and macroeconomic, financial and save the market to fill its huge vacancy (for example, 700,000,000,000 new debt limit), the United States must rely on the strong dollar policy to attract foreign capital inflows. For the United States, although the U.S. dollar will reduce the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, but banking, insurance and other service industries as the main body (the proportion of 70%) of the economy as a whole can benefit from them. Third, the United States to rescue the market will be a substantial increase in short-term government budget deficit, but will not necessarily increase the supply of dollars and long-term budget deficit. The increase in the amount of treasury bonds from its view that the United States to save the city money is actually raised by issuing bonds, the buyers generally can not be separated from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the oil-exporting countries such as China, Japan and other large surplus countries. In these countries to buy U.S. treasury bonds only when the foreign exchange reserves to adjust the currency products and structural, but many scholars have said the additional U.S. has no direct contact. The United States on long-term financial situation (with a period of 3-5 years), the United States to rescue the market will not only lead to the loss, it was like Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government rescue package, market and economic stabilization after a very rich The investment income in order to reduce its government deficit in the proportion of GDP accounted for. To know that the market is in a state of extreme panic, investors and financial institutions are selling over prevalent and the sale of assets at a discount. That is why, from a long cycle, I think the dollar is strong support.