Tuesday, October 7, 2008
Analysis of the impact of fluctuations in the gold price factor
1, due to political factors, gold has a function to avoid the risk that if the tense political situation, war, the gold will play a role in this feature, investors buy gold, the gold price will go up. If August 19, 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union, gold prices in less than an hour 10 U.S. dollars (an ounce to as a unit); if political stability and gold immediately reinstated. If the 1992 Gulf War, gold prices stood at 400 U.S. dollars, but the post-war situation under control, gold down on the weak. But if a regional war, the effects may not be able to boost gold prices have soared. 2, economic factors and poor economic good, can affect the rise and fall of gold. The overheated economy, inflationary concerns, as have the gold hedge inflation risk function; if inflation will be investment options to buy gold. However, the measure of the inflation indicator to a large extent dependent on oil prices. As a result, the rise in oil prices will boost gold's rise. On the contrary, stable oil prices, gold prices will stabilize. However, if the economy improves, interest rates rise, such as the U.S. interest rate hike, investors will take home the gold and dollars, gold will be under pressure. Recent market rate against the U.S. population is expected to tune is a case in point. 3, the central bank's activities, the central bank gold is held by the big, they have a direct impact on the will of the gold price trend. If absorbed by the central bank holdings of gold or, gold will go up; On the other hand, if the central bank to sell gold, then gold will go soft. As at the end of the century, 90 the central bank continued selling of gold and gold continued to make softened, once dropped to 265 U.S. dollars an ounce historical low. 4, consumption depends on factors of the economic factors of good and bad. When the economy is good, the people of the increased income, consumer sentiment strengthened, gold and silver ornaments as consumers become targets of the growth in demand to stimulate the rise in gold prices. On the other hand, if the economic downturn and consumers less willing to buy, the decline in the demand for gold by the impact of softening. 5, science, technology and industry as a result of another gold used for a wide range of modern high-tech industries, such as electronics, communications technology, aerospace technology, chemical technology, medical technology, the industry's annual demand of about 60 tons, about 17% of consumption, so the more industrial development, the greater the demand for gold, gold will rise. On the other hand, if the more science and technology development, the gold mining costs corresponding drop in gold prices will be soft. 6, investment demand for gold due to the inherent value of the investment, so when all these factors favorable to the gold, investors will follow the stock market, gold demand-driven factors caused the price of gold popular. 7, the world's gold supply and demand of gold supply comes from three main areas: gold mining, the central bank to sell reserves, as well as old gold recovery. Gold continued growth in demand, the growth rate of supply can not keep up with the pace of demand growth, particularly in the South African gold production fell. This means that the central bank needs to sell gold to cover the gap between supply and demand, but by the central banks signed an agreement restricting their sale to a limited number of gold. If the market continued to worry about prospects for the U.S. dollar, gold demand will rise.
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