Investment in China's gold analysis

Since 2001, the international price of gold began to enter the upward trend in 2008, this trend is more evident. Domestic gold enterprises as a result of rising gold prices, and its continued efforts to enhance investment and development, making China the past few years has steadily increased gold production out of the situation, according to the World Gold Mining Company statistics, China has become the world's largest gold-producing countries. At the same time, South Africa, Australia, Canada, the United States and other major gold producing country in recent years, gold production is declining year by year, on a global scale is the elimination Peter up, the change is not significant. From the consumer's point of view, the situation is similar to the price rise year after year many gold-consuming countries such as India, Turkey and other countries in the decline in consumer demand, China's consumption is growing. At the same time, the world's emerging markets of gold reserves over the past few years showed an increasing trend for gold investment fund positions in recent years been on the rise. Private investment, particularly investment demand, China's population is growing. This year, China A-share market fell sharply, the Chinese people's enthusiasm for investment in gold is also rising gradually, the bank's gold business development can be seen, for example, in the first half of 2008, China Construction Bank (601,939, it shares), "Long Dingjin" The trading volume increased by several times the same period last year. And in the first quarter of 2008, the Shanghai Gold Exchange, gold traded up to 1085.60 tons, up nearly six-fold. However, China's investment in the gold market has just started, a relatively small scale, which is China's gold production, sales do not increase in direct proportion to the size of the investment we are making less from the World Gold big a far cry from the country. Not because of gold's pricing power, domestic gold prices tend to change with the international market. Gold supply and demand factors affecting the price of gold futures and the long-term trend. The gold in addition to the short-term trend is particularly weak, and in particular when, in 80% of the time, the trend of the index and the U.S. dollar negatively correlated. Most of the time is the same with the U.S. dollar index negatively correlated with the trend of crude oil futures price movements, they often can be supported by the trend of gold. The world's major political, economic and war events or emergencies, they often can be gold-order phase grid and even the formation of the mid-point level Impact on the price of gold is a multi-factor, to buy gold, if only to consider the level of inflation, which in fact is a biased, CPI index reached a peak, gold may not have been on the rise is trend. High inflation, gold may also be due to the impact of other factors have led to falling prices, it is entirely possible that the gold investment must be carefully considered.

American-style cost-shift: oil and dollar situation inverter

U.S. financial tsunami triggered by the worldwide financial crisis is still spreading and deepening, and has severely hurt the real economy and the majority of investors. The most severe since the 1929-1933 economic crisis and has been declared free of the capitalist myth of bankruptcy, as well as over-innovation, over-consumption and over-reliance on monetary and economic development model of bankruptcy. This may lead to changes in the pattern of world economic and financial policies of major adjustment. In the financial tsunami which seriously undermine the world leader in the global hegemony of the financial infrastructure, the United States in monetary policy, financial supervision and operation of the IMF and will be more dependent on Europe, Japan and China policy co-ordination between (such as interest rate cuts at the same time). Only China and Japan joined hands in Europe and the United States can continue to play the role of the boss. As a result, the international monetary system, including the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank the right to vote and to monitor the distribution of goals (IMF on the issue of developed countries and non-balance of payments imbalance caused by insufficient attention to the crisis) may have a positive change. End of the six-year dollar The U.S. dollar cycle because of their financial situation will be improved and extended to six years or so, the euro's exchange rate will eventually be broken up 0.9 U.S. dollars / euros of the price. Gathered greater momentum in the financial tsunami, the U.S. government come up with trillions of dollars of funding to rescue the market, many experts and scholars in order to have a recession in the U.S. economy, the fiscal deficit is huge on the ground, the U.S. forecast in July will be short-lived since the pace of appreciation, In turn usher in a new wave of depreciation. But the fact is: the more the oil price drop, the lower U.S. dollar exchange rate or the more Yue Meng, the euro from a peak of 1.62 surging to a record 1.26 U.S. dollars / euros, the Australian dollar, British pound also showed rising momentum, resulting in a Granted options on futures speculation of primary products of domestic enterprises involved in foreign exchange transactions, as well as CITIC Pacific, China Railway, and other Chinese enterprises have suffered huge losses. Dollar Why is there such a "fun" of the situation? This is also from the financial crisis and U.S. strategic intention to seek the answer. On the financial impact of the tsunami, at least three major factors against the U.S. dollar has played a supporting role: First, the global stock markets plunged, the funds in order to seek refuge after another into the U.S. bond market and indirectly raise the popularity of the dollar. Secondly, in order to save the financial markets and macroeconomic, financial and save the market to fill its huge vacancy (for example, 700,000,000,000 new debt limit), the United States must rely on the strong dollar policy to attract foreign capital inflows. For the United States, although the U.S. dollar will reduce the competitiveness of the manufacturing industry, but banking, insurance and other service industries as the main body (the proportion of 70%) of the economy as a whole can benefit from them. Third, the United States to rescue the market will be a substantial increase in short-term government budget deficit, but will not necessarily increase the supply of dollars and long-term budget deficit. The increase in the amount of treasury bonds from its view that the United States to save the city money is actually raised by issuing bonds, the buyers generally can not be separated from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the oil-exporting countries such as China, Japan and other large surplus countries. In these countries to buy U.S. treasury bonds only when the foreign exchange reserves to adjust the currency products and structural, but many scholars have said the additional U.S. has no direct contact. The United States on long-term financial situation (with a period of 3-5 years), the United States to rescue the market will not only lead to the loss, it was like Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government rescue package, market and economic stabilization after a very rich The investment income in order to reduce its government deficit in the proportion of GDP accounted for. To know that the market is in a state of extreme panic, investors and financial institutions are selling over prevalent and the sale of assets at a discount. That is why, from a long cycle, I think the dollar is strong support.